A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
